U.S. oil prices have dropped more than 15% so far this year to levels that could threaten the ability of smaller producers to earn a profit. And that’s even before factoring in forecasts that could see the biggest global supply surplus on record next year.

Oil has been one of the worst-performing commodities throughout 2025, despite being subject to heightened volatility.

Petrobras raised its third-quarter dividend after record production and higher earnings offset lower global oil prices.

They may soon get their chance. Oil in storage has increased sharply this year as Opec upped production. Next year, the IEA has pencilled in an oversupply of 4mn barrels a day. Opec now says it will refrain from further supply hikes next year, and sanctions on Russian oil companies could hit exports, but oil prices may continue their slide even so.

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Ukrainian drones have struck a major oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd region for the second time in nearly three months, according to Ukraine’s general staff.

Brazil is planning to create a mechanism to use oil revenues to finance the nation’s energy transition, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said, as the country juggles its green ambitions against its expanding production of fossil fuels.

The Trump administration will hold an auction for drilling oil and gas off the U.S. Gulf next month and has proposed another in a waterway in southern Alaska, it said on Friday. The lease sale in the U.