Here’s how an AI-powered trader earned $2.2 million on Polymarket using data models, automation and probability-based trading ...

The Monte Carlo simulation estimates the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted because of the potential for random variables.

Polymarket rate cut forecasts show a 97% probability of a 25 bps interest rate reduction ahead of the Federal Reserve ...

Worse, the models “hallucinate” — meaning, they invent. A study of AI tools used in the legal domain shows 58% to 82% ...

In A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, published in 1814, Pierre-Simon Laplace introduced a notorious hypothetical creature: a “vast intelligence” that knew the complete physical state of the ...

After you read this, you’ll have a 32% chance at better understanding how bad you are at probability. If the risk of an event goes up or down, we assume that it will keep changing in that direction.